Lake Vermilion Area Weekend Weather – March 7-9 UPDATE

KEY MESSAGES

– Next clipper is expected to move through Monday night with snow totals across northern MN largely less than a half an inch.
– Temperatures warm substantially Sunday and Monday with highs 15-25F above normal. Monday will be the warmest day with temperatures in the 50s for much of the Northland and possible low to mid 60s in central Minnesota.
– A strong Colorado low still looks to develop Friday. Quite a few days out but main concerns at this time would be, thunderstorms and heavy rain. There is also snow potential on the backside for next Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

Current Conditions:

A compact clipper has moved well off to the east and into the UP
this afternoon. Satellite shows clearing skies across the region
with low stratus eroding in the Arrowhead. Southwesterly flow
filling in behind the exiting clipper has helped to promote
temperatures warming into upper 40s.

Tomorrow/Monday:

Another clipper is set to cruise across Ontario which could bring
(25%) some light snow to the tip of the Arrowhead. Accumulations
would be negligible. The rest of the Northland is firmly within the
warm sector and will see ample warm air advection. Highs are
expected to soar into the 50s.

The warming trend continues on Monday as a system developing in the
Canadian Prairies helps to draw more warmth from the south. South to
southwesterly winds will lead to temperatures 15-20F above normal.
Based on the current forecast the record high temp of 58 in Brainerd
may be broken.

The aforementioned system in the Canadian Prairies is projected to
pivot across northern MN Monday night. Light snowfall will accompany
this system largely producing a half an inch of snow. Current
NBM probabilities highlight the Borderlands as having a 30%
chance of seeing 1″ of snow.

Midweek:

Temperatures trend slightly cooler than what we have seen this
past weekend and early week as a polar air mass sweeps in
behind the system from Monday. That being said the cool air
looks to have a brief stay. Tuesday`s highs are in the 30s with
upper 20s across the Borderlands. The area quickly slides back
to the warming trend on Wednesday with highs back in the 40s and
50s.

Late Week Colorado Low:

Ensembles and cluster analysis continues to advertise a Colorado Low
developing Friday and moving across the Midwest through the weekend.
Early projections of the low has it being on the strong side with
pressures around 984mb. For context, this time of year that
would yield a return interval of once every 10 years. The track
of the low and timing still remain in flux with both the GEFS
and Euro solutions favoring a track through southern MN by
Saturday morning.

While it is still early to lock into a particular solution we can
dive a bit into what this initial set up is looking like. The region
will still be under a strong warm dome meaning precipitation will
initially be rain. Depending on the strength of the low we may see
dewpoints increasing on southerly flow which would introduce
stronger instability. Some strong to severe storms can`t be ruled
out for the Friday timeframe. The best moisture advection
currently looks to be in the Saturday window which may lead to
some heavy rain.

One of the more contested items with this system will be the amount
of wrap around moisture for Sunday and how quickly we cool on the
backside. Both the deterministic Euro and GFS offer differing
opinions with the GFS supporting a more pronounced intrusion of dry
air on the backside while the Euro favors more return flow moisture.
As such snow totals remain highly variable for Sunday.

AVIATION

Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

A clipper will move through far northern portions of the area tonight, bringing increased clouds and low chances of snow to locations along the International border and far northeastern area of the Arrowhead. Expect snow chances to remain east of all forecast terminals, with VFR cigs heights. Northwesterly winds will remain breezy this evening before diminishing to around 5kts overnight. Winds will turn to the southwest by Sunday morning and increase as the clipper crosses the area. Surface winds will increase to 10-15kts, with gusts of 18-24kts through the day. Low level winds will also increase, with a period of LLWS possible Sunday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR