Lake Vermilion Area Weather – WEEKEND – January 1-5
From the National Weather Service
New Year’s Day
A slight chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 16. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. West wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Thursday
A chance of flurries after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 12. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. Northwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 5. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -11. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday
Sunny and cold, with a high near 3. Northwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around -13. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 7. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the morning.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -7. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 10. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 8. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
KEY MESSAGES
– Light snow and flurries tapering off for most through the day. Minimal accumulations expected.
– Intermittent lake effect snow showers for northern Iron County and northern Bayfield. Snow accumulations of an inch or two between now and Friday.
– Frigid temperatures Saturday morning, but a sunny day!
DISCUSSION
Issued at 342 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
Current Conditions/Today:
Northwesterly flow has settled into the Northland with surface
ridging extending into the Northland from Alberta. Cloudy conditions
continue to persist across the region with surface observations
still picking up on some occasional light snow. Satellite is
even showing a little meso low moving across Lake of the Woods
this morning which has incited some additional snow showers.
Aloft we still have cyclonic churning as a vort max moves across
NW WI this afternoon. Overall, forcing for ascent is rather
meager but it doesn`t take a whole lot to generate flurries when
we have these colder temperatures and low clouds. Chances for
flurries look to taper off a bit as we head into the afternoon
as height falls recede and some scattering of clouds will be
possible across the Brainerd Lakes region.
South Shore forecast (Today-Friday)
Westerly to northwesterly flow through the period with cold air
aloft running across the warm Lake will bring about periodic snow
showers. Delta T is around 16C and we look to maintain our low level
moisture through Friday night. Not an ideal fetch scenario
which keeps the brunt of the snow over the UP, but northern
Iron county will siphon off a few inches of snow. Additionally,
a slight uptick in northwesterly winds could set up a gravity
wave leading to some snowfall across northern Bayfield. High res
guidance isn`t hinting at a very strong signal at the moment so
have kept accumulations to around an inch or less through
Thursday.
Rest of the work week:
Not a lot of movement in the weather pattern for the Northland.
Cyclonic circulation over northern Ontario will persist as
surface ridging extends across the Northland. Profiles remain
saturated for most of the region leading to continued cloud
cover. A few shortwaves do move through the pattern and may
produce light snow or flurries at times but not expecting much
in way of accumulations.
This weekend:
Ensembles and cluster analysis are still in fairly good agreement
that the robust system forecasted to impact the Midwest will
remain far to the south of the Northland. A strong high pressure
emanating from Manitoba will deflect the activity while
bringing about some frigid temperatures. Saturday morning wind
chills may warrant some Cold Weather Advisories as portions of
the Arrowhead may drop to -30F, elsewhere temperatures will be
around -20F. One bright spot in the forecast will quite literally
be the sun. It`s been awhile since most of the region has seen
a decent amount of Sun, but dry air moves in with the aforementioned
high pressure leading to a sunny Saturday. Just remember to bundle
up as highs will be in the single digits for most.
AVIATION
Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
Vast MVFR stratus deck encompasses the Northland this morning with
some embedded flurries and light snow. Not much is expected in terms
of snow accumulations and activity is expected to slowly taper off
as we move into the afternoon hours. MVFR ceilings are still
slightly favored to stick around for most of the region but some
scattering of the clouds could see VFR conditions return to BRD.
High res guidance suggests a 60% chance of scattering out over BRD
by 18Z.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
West to northwest winds across the Lake through the forecast period.
The drainage winds over the North Shore didn`t really materialize so
we have canceled the Small Craft Advisory along the North Shore.
While the latest guidance doesn`t look quite as strong we could
still see some localized gusts to 25 kts and building wave across
the Outer Apostle islands this afternoon.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.