Lake Vermilion Area Weather – February 27-28

KEY MESSAGES

– Light snow chances today across northeastern Minnesota as temperatures remain above normal.
– A stronger clipper will move through the region tonight into Friday bringing snow for the Minnesota Arrowhead and a rain/snow mix elsewhere. The tip of the Arrowhead is in line for the highest snowfall totals.
– Dry and cooler to start the weekend before warming back up heading into the new week with chances for mixed precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

An elongated area of low pressure stretched across northwestern
Ontario into northeastern Minnesota, Upper Michigan and over
Lake Superior early this morning. This is the remnants of a weak
clipper that brought light snow showers to the Northland
Wednesday evening into the early morning hours of Thursday.
North-northwest flow aloft and cold air advection on the
backside of this departing area of low pressure will keep a few
light snow showers possible through the day today as a jet moves
overhead and pushes an area of vorticity through the region
ahead of it. This activity will mainly be across northeastern
Minnesota, but lake effect snowfall will also linger through the
morning across northern Iron County. Any additional
accumulations through the day will be around an inch or less,
highest in Iron County. Highs today will be slightly cooler, but
still above normal in the 30s and lower 40s.

Heading into tonight, the northwest flow pattern brings another
clipper system into the region. This one looks to be a bit
stronger than the past few systems, but the bulk of the impacts
look to be on the Canadian side of the border. Models have come
into better agreement in regards to the track of the low, taking
it from north of INL to near MQT Friday. Most of the QPF with
this system is on the north and east sides of the low, but much
of the stronger forcing looks to be on the south side. Expecting
snow to move into the INL area by late this evening and spread
to the southeast through tonight and continue into Friday
afternoon. There may be times of mixed precipitation, especially
at the onset, with temperatures above freezing at the surface.
Cooler air aloft will move in fairly quickly which should lead
to more snow than rain/snow mix, especially through the day
Friday. QPF amounts are fairly light across most of the region,
however, so any snowfall amounts are expected to remain sub-
advisory level. The exception to that is across the tip of the
Arrowhead. With the low tracking just to the south of this area,
it will get into the higher QPF amounts. Additionally,
temperatures will remain below freezing in this area with no
mixing expected. Winds will also be onshore which may lead to
some lake enhancement as well. Snowfall amounts have come down
slightly since our last package, but there is still a sizable
area of 6 to 9 inches from the Lutsen area to Grand Portage and
up the Gunflint Trail. This is supported by the HREF with 6+
inches in the same area along with some contours of 12+ in the
Grand Portage area. SREF plumes are still struggling even around
24 hours ahead of the event. Considerable spread is seen with
members ranging from 10 inches to nothing at KCKC. The ensemble
mean is around 2.5 inches, with a good number of members in the
2.5 to 7 inch range. NBM probabilities in the tip of the
Arrowhead are around 70 percent for at least 6 inches, but only
around 30-40 percent for at least 8 inches. With all this said,
decided to hoist a Winter Storm Warning for our southern Cook
zone and interior Lake/Cook zone. The low track is going to
decide if the heaviest amounts are around Grand Portage, or just
over the border into the Thunder Bay area. Given the potential
of the higher amounts, decided to go with a warning over an
advisory. Elsewhere across the Northland, snowfall totals
through Friday afternoon will generally be 2 inches or less.
Higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northeastern
St. Louis County and into the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt.
Isolated higher amounts to around 6 inches are possible in the
Hurley-Gile area.

High pressure will bring dry conditions for the weekend.
Temperatures will be much cooler on Saturday with highs in the
teens and 20s, which is much closer to normal. As the high moves
east on Sunday, southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures
back into the region with highs in the 20s and 30s. The warming
trend continues into Monday with 40s and lower 50s expected. For
the mid-week period, models continue to hint at a Colorado low
developing and lifting to the northeast. While the track remains
in questions, there are chances for mixed precipitation across
the region along with cooler temperatures.

AVIATION

Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions predominate across the region early this
morning with a few areas of IFR or lower north of the Iron
Range. A few light snow showers are currently east of I-35/US53
across Minnesota and are pushing eastward. The heaviest snow was
reported across northeastern Minnesota, quickly reducing VSBYs
to IFR, but not lasting long. This activity will clear the
region by daybreak, but MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected to linger
through much of the day. Another system will begin to push into
the region from the northwest late Thursday evening, with snow
showers starting at INL by the late evening hours. Winds will be
gusty out of the northwest today with gusts to 15 to 20 knots.
LLWS is expected to spread across the region Thursday night with
the next system, but looks to hold off until after 06z Friday
for the most part.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Northwesterly winds will generally remain under 20 knots today,
although some slightly higher gusts will be possible this
morning through about midday along the North Shore. These gusts
will be near small craft criteria, but the window for them to
occur is fairly small and confidence remains too low for any
advisory at this time. Winds turn southerly tonight and increase
to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Winds further increase
Friday morning and become northeasterly with gales to 40 to 45
knots along the North Shore and into the Apostle Islands into
Friday afternoon. Elevated gusts to around 25 knots will then
linger through Friday night. Snow showers will also be possible
starting late tonight and continuing into Friday which may lead
to periods of reduced visibilities.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN…Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday
for MNZ012-021.
WI…None.
MARINE…None.