Lake Vermilion Area Weather – February 24-26

KEY MESSAGES

– Warm temperatures are expected through the work week with high temperatures increasing above freezing for most locations.
– A light wintry mix is expected this evening through tonight, particularly in the MN Arrowhead. This could lead to slippery roads due to light snow and ice accumulations.
– An active pattern will persist this upcoming week with chances for light wintry mix again on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning as well as Friday into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Temperatures have warmed up nicely underneath predominately
sunny skies filtered through some high clouds, with widespread
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s, warmest in central and
north-central MN. Some lingering cloud cover in the tip of the
Arrowhead has muted high temperatures there a bit to around or
just above freezing. The cooler temperatures in the tip of the
Arrowhead will play a factor on precipitation type as we head
into this evening and tonight.

For this evening and tonight, surface low pressure moving across
far northern Manitoba and Ontario and associated mid- and
upper-level shortwave energy moving across the Upper Midwest
will bring wintry mix potential tonight in the form of light rain,
snow, and freezing rain. While QPF amounts have been bumped up
slightly relative to previous forecasts, generally 0.05-0.20″, the
bulk of precipitation is expected to remain north of the
International Border. The majority of measurable precipitation
will be along and north of the US-2 corridor, with amounts of
0.10″ greater generally north of the Iron Range, and amounts
approaching 0.15-0.25″ in the tip of the Arrowhead. Lesser QPF
amounts can be expected farther south and west. The forecast has
shifted to temperatures remaining generally above freezing for
most locations until overnight/early Monday morning, so the main
precipitation type for most locations is expected to be in the
form of liquid rain, though some mixing in of light snow and
light freezing rain can`t be ruled out in NW WI and the
Arrowhead. For the tip of the Arrowhead in particular (Cook and
Lake counties), the cooler start to temperatures this afternoon
means that temperatures should stay with a couple degrees either
side of freezing tonight this evening into tonight, with the
trend being an initial wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing
rain and then back to a primarily rain/snow mix tonight.
Precipitation with this system should come to an end through mid
Monday morning, with the bulk of the precipitation coming this
evening and tonight.

For accumulations this evening into Monday morning, snow and ice
amounts should remain relatively low due to most precipitation
being in the form of light rain and warm temperatures keeping
low snow to liquid ratios at around 4:1 to 7:1, so a wetter,
slushier snow. Snow amount forecasts are for less than 1 inch in
the tip of the Arrowhead, and little to no accumulations
elsewhere. For ice accumulations, there may be a few hundredths
in the tip of the Arrowhead, and little to no amounts elsewhere.
Therefore, if you are traveling this evening and tonight,
especially in the tip of the Arrowhead, be mindful that there
could be some slick spots on untreated roadways.

Though the low pressure system departs on Monday, hi-res models
and forecast soundings show some lingering low-level saturation
and steeper lapse rates in its wake from midday Monday into
Monday night with northwesterly surface winds. This pattern
would favor the potential for some horizontal convective roll
clouds and perhaps some flurries/sprinkles or very light
snow/rain at times in the Arrowhead and far northern MN, with
the liquid mixing in during the day as temperatures warm into
the upper 30s to 40s, and then primarily snow Monday evening and
night as temperatures drop back below freezing. Only expect
scattered light dustings at best with the snow. There will also
be a weak shortwave passing through southern MN Monday afternoon
and evening that could cause very light rain/snow to clip far
southern portions of the Northland (10-20% chance), but better
chances for precipitation remain south of the area.

Beyond Monday, we get into a northwest flow pattern aloft with a
series of shortwaves moving through our region, with several
rounds of wintry mixes Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning
and Friday into Saturday morning. Temperatures remain warm
through the workweek with temperatures mostly above freezing and
reaching the low to mid 40s in spots, and lows in the 20s to
around 30 for most locations each night. The wintry mix Tuesday
evening/night in particular could see some light freezing rain
(a couple to few hundredths of an inch) mix in again depending
on how warm temperatures in the lower portion of the atmosphere
get relative to freezing. There won`t be an abundance of
moisture with these systems mid and late this week, so
precipitation amounts should remain on the lighter side. While
still 5 days out, forecast soundings with the Friday into early
Saturday system look more inclined to be purely rain/snow mixes,
so depending on how much of the precipitation falls as snow vs.
rain, which will depend on temperatures and timing with that
clipper system, parts of the Northland could see at least a
little bit of accumulating snow. In fact, NBM ensemble
probabilities paint an area of 20-40% chances for 2 or more
inches of snow in the Arrowhead and northern Iron County Friday
into early Saturday.

AVIATION

Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Low MVFR to near-IFR stratus continue at DLH/HIB until around
19Z before shifting northeast of these terminals into the tip of
the Arrowhead. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for the area
much of this afternoon into early evening under increasing mid
and high level clouds from the west. Low pressure tracking east
through northern Manitoba and Ontario will bring predominately
rain for most of the area this evening and tonight, with the
exception being light FZRA and -SN primarily north and east of
DLH/HIB/INL. With that said, can`t completely rule out a
rain/snow mix at all terminals aside from BRD, with the best
potential, around a 30 percent chance, at HIB/DLH/INL.

Gusty southwest winds develop later this afternoon and evening,
and then turn westerly tonight through the end of the TAF
period. Increasing winds aloft will also lead to LLWS this
evening into early Monday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Southerly winds today increase later this evening and tonight
out of the southwest to 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts of 25
to around 30 knots, with these stronger winds continuing into
daytime Monday out of the west-southwest. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect through Monday afternoon for all of
western Lake Superior as those southwesterly winds linger into
the early afternoon. Waves will build to 2 to 6 feet as a result,
especially in the outer Apostle Islands and North Shore from
Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage. Winds and waves diminish
Monday night and generally remain below 15 knots through early
this week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN…None.
WI…None.
MARINE…Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CST
Monday for LSZ140>146-148-150.