Lake Vermilion Area Weather

Lake Vermilion Area Weather

Today
Cloudy, with a high near 58. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Tuesday
Showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
A chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Northwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Southwest wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 29. South wind around 5 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 53. South wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers continue today for roughly the southeast
  half of the Northland...ending later this afternoon/early
  evening.

- Dry with highs 15 to nearly 25F above normal Sunday and
  Monday.

- Chances for mainly light rain return Tuesday into Wednesday. A
  few flakes will be possible in far northern Minnesota.
  Temperatures cool Tuesday into Wednesday with highs Wednesday
  in the forties for most.


DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A frontal boundary will be a focus for showers today, mainly
across the southeast half of the Northland from near the
Brainerd Lakes into parts of the Arrowhead and across northwest
Wisconsin. A narrow plume of PWAT values a bit higher than 1",
which is in the 97th percentile, will lie along the frontal
boundary and low to mid-level FGEN, and a shortwave aloft will
aid in producing the showers. A few rumbles of thunder have
occurred early this morning but much of the instability will
push north this morning. The CAM guidance is in decent agreement
and keep chances for showers going well into the afternoon to
early evening over parts of northwest Wisconsin. Rainfall
amounts will be light for most, less than a quarter inch.
However, a very narrow band of a quarter to perhaps a half is
possible as suggested by the HREF.

The front will weaken later today into tonight with dry
conditions developing this evening for all areas. Dry conditions
are expected Sunday with southerly winds gusting to 20 to around
25 mph developing through the day. Highs will rise into the
seventies but be a bit cooler along the North Shore. These
values are 15 to nearly 25F above normal.

A cut-off low over AZ today will move little today and tonight
but then drift northeast Sunday night into Monday to southern CO
then into the Central Plains on Monday. Ridging will develop
over the Northland ahead of this feature keeping the region dry
and very warm Monday with highs similar to Sunday.

The upper low will open up later Monday into Monday night with a
northern stream shortwave moving into the region Tuesday.
Chances for light showers will return Tuesday along with cooler
temperatures, highs in the sixties to around seventy. The
northern stream wave will push a cold front through the region
Tuesday into Tuesday night with highs only in the forties for
most on Wednesday. It may get cold enough early Wednesday
morning for a few flakes of snow to mix with the rain along the
International Border region. Rainfall amounts Tuesday/Wednesday
are expected to be light, generally less than a quarter inch.
We may be holding onto POPs too long Wednesday as high pressure
builds into the region. The global models and most members of
the ECMWF ensemble suggest drier conditions for Wednesday
afternoon. If current trends hold, we will be able to cut back
on POPs.

Confidence in the forecast Thursday into next weekend is not
very high as the global models show quite a few differences. One
thing they do agree on is that widespread significant rainfall
is unlikely through Friday.