Lake Vermilion Area Weekend Weather – February 2-3 UPDATE

Today
A chance of snow before 9am, then a chance of flurries between 9am and noon. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 28 by 11am, then falling to around 18 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tonight
A chance of flurries after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday
A chance of flurries before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -11. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 7. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -7. Calm wind.
Wednesday
A chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Thursday
A slight chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 12. Breezy, with a west wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 17. West wind around 5 mph.
Friday Night
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Saturday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
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KEY MESSAGES

– Snow and patchy freezing drizzle diminishes or ends this morning.
– More snow expected tonight, mainly over southern portions of the Northland. Snowfall from 1 to 4 inches forecast but locally higher amounts are possible in a very narrow band. New Winter Weather Advisories issued from Pine to Price Counties.
– Mild temperatures today become colder tonight into Monday.
– Additional chances for snow occur Wednesday/Thursday and possibly this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2025

An active pattern is expected over the next week with several
chances for accumulating snow.

Snow continued this morning but was diminishing from southwest
to northeast. The snow will linger longest in the Arrowhead
today. There is low potential, around 20 percent, for some
freezing drizzle briefly as the snow diminishes or ends.
Satellite showed warmer cloud tops moving into the Brainerd
Lakes area as of 09Z but observations show good visibility and
no precipitation. For now, we let the headlines continue as is.
We thought about extending them for the Arrowhead into mid-
morning but additional snow after 6AM should be less than an
inch and the freezing drizzle potential appears low as well.

Mild temperatures will occur today with highs at or above
freezing from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
This will be short lived as colder air will move in later
today into tonight with falling temperatures this afternoon for
most.

Another chance for snow will occur tonight into Monday with a
shortwave and FGEN forcing acting on a baroclinic zone over the
region. The FGEN forcing is strong and there is some low
stability present given negative EPV values which will lead to
a narrow band of heavier snow. Where this band ends up is still
a question as it`s shifted around over the past few model runs.
The chances are highest over our southern zones or just south of
there. There is a 50-65% chance for snowfall of 3″ or more from
our southern area and we issued a Winter Weather Advisory from
Pine County in Minnesota to Price County in Wisconsin from
midnight through 10 AM Monday for 2 to 4″ of snow. There is
potential for even higher amounts in a very narrow band. It`s
possible the better forcing may shift north and advisories may
need to be expanded north. Most of the snow should end by late
Monday morning. Monday will also be colder with highs only in
the single digits above zero over far north central Minnesota
with teens or lower 20`sF over northwest Wisconsin.

Monday night will be the coldest night for most with lows from
zero to around 15 below zero, coldest in far north central
Minnesota. At this time the combination of wind and
temperatures are not quite enough for Wind Chill Advisories.

There will be additional chances for accumulating snow Wednesday
into Thursday. There is a 40-70% chance for snowfall of 2″ or
more, highest in the far northeast Minnesota.

Temperatures through much of the week will be below normal.

AVIATION

Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2025

Southerly winds this morning will veer to southwest or west
today then to northwest tonight. As the winds veer today they
will increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 35 knots,
strongest tonight along the North Shore. There is a 10 to 20%
chance for gales along the North Shore tonight, mainly from
Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for all areas today into tonight, except into Monday
morning for Grand Portage to Taconite Harbor.

After diminishing later tonight into Monday morning, winds may
increase enough again Monday afternoon/night for hazardous
conditions to redevelop for small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2025

Southerly winds this morning will veer to southwest or west
today then to northwest tonight. As the winds veer today they
will increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 35 knots,
strongest tonight along the North Shore. There is a 10 to 20%
chance for gales along the North Shore tonight, mainly from
Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for all areas today into tonight, except into Monday
morning for Grand Portage to Taconite Harbor.

After diminishing later tonight into Monday morning, winds may
increase enough again Monday afternoon/night for hazardous
conditions to redevelop for small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN…Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
MNZ011-012-019-037.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
MNZ020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
Monday for MNZ038.
WI…Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
WIZ001-002.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
Monday for WIZ006>009.
MARINE…Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for LSZ140-141.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM CST Monday for
LSZ142>148-150.