Lake Vermilion Area Weather – February 12-14
KEY MESSAGES
– Bitterly cold temperatures continue tonight. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for most of the Northland.
– Light snow showers across north central Wisconsin are expected overnight. Totals up to an inch are expected.
– Another system will bring widespread snow. Two to four inches are possible across the southern Iron Range, the Arrowhead, and northwest Wisconsin.
– Cold weather returns after the system and will last through the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Light snow showers are moving east across Wisconsin, and is
approaching our southern CWA line. For the time being, it seems
that battling the dry air has delayed the onset of snow
somewhat, but snow will begin across Price and Sawyer counties
within the next couple hours. Our area will be on the edge of
this system, so totals will be up to an inch by Thursday morning
across portions of northwest Wisconsin.
Additionally, an arctic air mass that brought cold temperatures
last night lingers over the Northland tonight. Cold weather
advisories are in effect for all of northeast Minnesota and
far northwestern Wisconsin. Cloud cover from the snow system
tonight should prevent us from bottoming out like last night,
but any lingering clear spots could see temperatures similar to
this morning for early Thursday.
Friday, an upper level trough will move east from the Rockies
over the Central Plains. Warm air advection will give a slight
relief from the cold with highs in the teens. With the WAA ahead
of the system as well as strong mid level forcing, snow showers
are expected to form Friday evening over the Midwest. There is
some spatial spread of where the snow will form, but there is a
general consensus among global models that they will form over
MN/WI and move east from there. There is uncertainty on the west
to east gradient of snow as well, depending on where the snow
begins. Generally, northwest Wisconsin is expected to get the
most snow, with totals of at least 2 inches (70%) and up to 4
inches (20%). Amounts lessen to the north and west, with light
snow totals in north central and northwest Minnesota of an inch
or less (90%). Snow should end Saturday as cold, dry air is
advected into the region.
Bitterly cold conditions return after Friday`s system, and
continues for the remainder of the forecast period. More Cold
Weather Advisories will undoubtedly be needed some nights.
Global models hint at an upper level low diving south into the
Northern Plains by mid next week, though differences in
placement causes high uncertainty on when/if areas will see
snow.
AVIATION
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
VFR ceilings and light winds will prevail through the period
with high pressure over most of the region. A system passing by
well to the south will spread some VFR cloud cover across parts
of northwest Wisconsin. There is a low chance that ceilings may
dip to MVFR at HYR, but trends have been towards VFR to prevail.
If any MVFR ceilings were to occur, it would be during the
evening and overnight hours. Some light snow will be possible
across northwest Wisconsin underneath the cloud cover as well,
but it is not expected to affect HYR.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Cold temperatures persist over Lake Superior. northwest winds
and the advection of cold air tonight into Thursday will lead
to stronger winds along the North Shore that will flirt with
Small Craft Advisory criteria, but is not widespread enough to
issue at this time. Snow showers are expected Friday night into
Saturday, with winds increasing once again behind the system,
causing conditions hazardous to small craft.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN…Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
Thursday for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI…Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
Thursday for WIZ001-002-006>008.
MARINE…None.