Lake Vermilion Area Weekend Weather – February 7-9 UPDATE

KEY MESSAGES

– Snowfall continues into today, ending from west to east from midday into early evening. Additional accumulations of 1 to 6 inches is expected along and south of US Hwy 2 in Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The highest additional amounts will occur along and south of a line from Hinckley to Hayward to Park Falls.
– Cold weather is expected next week. Lows in the teens and 20s below zero with wind chills into the 30s below zero are expected Tuesday through Thursday mornings.
– Additional rounds of snowfall are possible Wednesday night into Thursday and next Saturday, but confidence in the track of these winter systems and associated snowfall is low at this point.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

Early this morning and Today:

Snowfall is ongoing across much of the Northland early this
morning underneath broad synoptic lift, with the northern
cutoff of snowfall generally Bemidji into the Iron Range as low
and mid- level dry air is present across far northern Minnesota.
For areas along and south of US Hwy 2 in Minnesota and NW WI,
850 mb frontogenesis is leading to lower visibilities as low as
1/2 mile in moderate to locally heavy snow. More coherent
frontogenetic banding below 850 mb and in the 750-600 mb layers
are setting up just south of our southern tier of counties (i.e.
south of Pine to Price Counties), so localized 1″+/hr snowfall
may be more difficult to come by for the remainder of the
current overnight hours into this morning. With that said, broad
lift in the dendritic growth zone should still push snowfall
rates up to 0.5-0.75″/hr from the Brainerd Lakes into east-
central MN prior to sunrise. As for NW WI, the primary forcing
and 0.5-0.75″/hr snow rates should be more favored from a couple
hours prior to sunrise through mid morning. Snowfall rates
should begin to taper off from west to east in the Brainerd
Lakes to east-central MN through the morning and in NW WI from
mid morning through early afternoon. Snow then quickly ends
from west to east starting in central Minnesota around midday,
all of northeast and east-central MN by mid afternoon and most
of NW WI by early evening as drier and colder air works into the
region. There will be some lingering light lake-effect snow
across northern Ashland and Iron Counties through much of the
evening, but additional accumulations there look negligible.

As for additional snowfall amounts with this winter system,
there is still a potential for upwards of 6-7 inches for far
southern Price and Sawyer Counties, but the limited coverage of
these additional 6″+ accumulations, timing of the snowfall
overnight, and light winds should keep impacts more on a Winter
Weather Advisory level. Therefore we have left the Winter
Weather Advisory coverage unchanged, but did some tweaks to the
end times today due to a slightly quicker ending of the snowfall
on the back side of this system today. Overall, additional
snowfall accumulations for the Iron range and areas north will
be around 1″ or less, with an additional 1-2″ around the US Hwy
2 corridor, 1-4″ south of the US Hwy 2 corridor in MN, and 2-6″
east of the I-35 corridor into NW WI.

Tonight – Sunday:

Skies will clear out for this evening into early Sunday as high
pressure settles in at ground level under zonal flow aloft. This
will result in lows Sunday morning bottoming out in the single
digits to teens below zero, and then high temperatures only warm
into the teens on Sunday. We have also kept the forecast dry for
now on Sunday, but the addition of some flurries/light snow
showers may be necessary late Sunday/Sunday evening as steeper
low level lapse rates develop in a shallow near-surface
dendritic growth zone.

Monday – middle of next week:

An arctic cold front is forecast to move southeast through the
Northland on Monday. Some light snow may be possible as the
front moves through (10-20% chance), but limited moisture should
really tamp down accumulation potential. One thing to watch for
would be low-end snow squall potential (10-20% chance) if
enough low moisture is present in the dendritic growth zone due
to the likely presence of steep low-level lapse rates. However,
the reinforcing shot of cold air with the arctic cold front
could push most of the low-level saturation colder than the
dendritic growth zone, which would significantly hamper snow
squall or even snow potential in general.

Much colder temperatures will be the main story of the forecast
from Monday night through Thursday, with overnight/morning lows
in this timeframe in the teens to 20s below zero with wind
chills likely in the -20s to -30s despite generally lighter
winds that could necessitate Cold Weather headlines if this
forecast trend holds. Widespread highs on Tuesday should be in
the single digits above and below zero, while in the single
digits above zero to low teens on Wednesday and Thursday.

Later next week and weekend:

Global model deterministic and ensemble guidance then hints at a
more active pattern for the central portion of the CONUS once
again, bringing a couple rounds of snowfall potential back to
the Northland: one Wednesday night into Thursday and another on
Saturday.

The Wed Night/Thursday system would see an upper level
trough across the front range of the Rockies kick off lee
cyclogenesis of a Panhandle Hook-esque low pressure system,
though current tracks favor this low to track through the lower
Mississippi into Ohio River valleys, which would keep the
potential for heavier snow well to our south. We may only get
grazed by light snowfall with this system or may even be too far
north to see snowfall at all given the colder arctic airmass in
place.

The next weekend system would see an eastern Pacific trough on
Friday dig across the Intermountain West and kick off a Colorado
Low on Saturday that is forecast to generally track east across
the mid-Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes or Ohio
River Valley. There is a bit more spread among global model guidance
regarding the track of this next Saturday system so confidence
in the northern extent of the precipitation/snow shield into the
Northland is low at the moment. Our forecast currently has a
broadbrushed 30-50% PoPs late next Friday-Saturday to account
for the uncertainties with this system.

AVIATION

Issued at 542 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

Conditions continue to hold steady with MVFR ceilings and IFR
visibility for BRD/DLH/HYR, while HIB is VFR conditions and on
the northern fringe of light snow, with INL seeing VFR
conditions. Expect this pattern to continue until mid to late
morning, with visibilities then quickly improving to VFR from
west to east very late this morning through afternoon as
snowfall comes to an end from west to east and VFR ceilings to
follow this afternoon for BRD/DLH/HYR. Near-MVFR ceilings are
still possible at INL this afternoon, but kept the INL TAF as
VFR for now. Winds start out calm to light out of the north,
then back to northwesterly today and tonight. Some daytime gusts
up to 15 knots are expected at times, as well.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

An area of low pressure will pass by to the south today. Winds
will be light and variable, with snow leading to visibility
around or less than 1 mile at times into early this afternoon.
Wind gusts increase this afternoon into tonight, gusting up to
15 to 20 knots from the northwest as colder air moves into the
region. There is a small chance that the Outer Apostle Islands
touch 25 knot gusts this evening and tonight, but confidence was
too low to issue a Small Craft Advisory at this point. Winds
turn southwesterly on Sunday with gusts continuing at 15-20
knots for most nearshore waters, though the Outer Apostle
Islands could once again approach 25 knots. Winds remain west
to northwesterly Monday and Tuesday. A cold front Monday into
Monday night may result in some higher wind speeds of 20 to 30
knots that could be hazardous for small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN…Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ025-033-
034.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
MNZ035>038.
WI…Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ001-
002-006>008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ003-
004-009.
MARINE…None.