Lake Vermilion Area Weather – February 6-7
KEY MESSAGES
– Strong westerly winds with gusts of 30-40 mph are expected this afternoon. Areas along the North and South Shores and northwest Wisconsin south of WI-70 have the greatest chance of wind gusts to 40 mph.
– Snow showers will persist this morning and redevelop this afternoon. Visibility of 1/2 mile or less is possible in the heavier snow showers.
– Another chance for snow arrives Saturday, with best chance for accumulations over 2 inches along and south of US-2. There is a 20-40% chance of 6 inches or more along and south of a line from Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward to Phillips.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 422 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025
A shortwave trough over the northern Plains and Canadian
Prairies with a surface low over northwest Ontario will
propagate eastward today. Light to moderate snow will taper off
to scattered snow showers over northern Minnesota and the
Arrowhead by 6 AM. As of 330 AM the back side of the main area
of snow stretched from near Atikokan, ON to Silver Bay to near
Park Falls and was quickly advancing east-northeast. Snow
showers were evident on radar over portions of central Minnesota
and a secondary area of light snow was over northwest Ontario
and north-central Minnesota.
As the trough and surface low move eastward today, much colder
air aloft will advect into the region. A strong 140 kt 300 mb
jet streak will rotate through the base of the trough with
tightly wound vorticity in the mid-levels. A tight surface
pressure gradient is forecast as the surface low deepens while
moving over northeast Ontario into Quebec by early evening. High
pressure will strengthen over eastern Montana helping to
further tighten the pressure gradient. The cold air advection
will product steep low-level lapse rates and efficient mixing
into 35 to 45 knot 850 mb winds. Snow showers will likely
redevelop later this morning and this afternoon and patchy
blowing snow is possible as west winds gusts to 35 to 45 mph.
Visibility in the snow showers of 1/2 mile or less is forecast.
Temperatures will likely fall this morning and then hold steady
or continue to fall this afternoon.
Snow showers should taper off this evening with the loss of
surface heating. Wind gusts will weaken tonight as well in
response to slight warm air advection aloft. Low temps will
bottom out a few degrees either side of 0 degrees Fahrenheit.
Friday will be cool with highs in the low to upper teens above
zero, 6 to 10 degrees below normal.
Friday night and Saturday will bring the next chance of snow to
the Northland as a shortwave trough and 130-140 kt zonal jet
streak move into the Plains. Lingering moisture over the central
Plains from a Pacific atmospheric river will advect northward
into the Dakotas and southern Minnesota Friday. Two areas of
precipitation are forecast, one over the Dakotas associated with
the mid-level shortwave trough and a second over the mid-
Mississippi River Valley closer to the surface low. Snow is
forecast to move from South Dakota across central and southern
Minnesota into central and southern Wisconsin Saturday morning.
Areas along US-2 have a 20 to 50 percent chance of 2 inches of
snow while farther south there is a 20 to 40 percent chance of 6
inches or more along and south of a line from Brainerd to
Hinckley to Hayward to Phillips. Much like the system which
brought snow to the Northland overnight, dry air near the
surface will be a challenge. The strongest forcing is expected
to be across central and southern Minnesota into central
Wisconsin. Northerly winds over the Northland will reinforce the
sub-cloud dry air and will make it difficult for precipitation
to reach the ground, at least initially. The wave and associated
snow will quickly propagate eastward by early Saturday evening.
A weak clipper will bring another glancing shot of light snow
Monday and Monday night. Several additional chances of light
snow and colder temperatures will persist through much of next
week as a fast northwest to quasi-zonal flow pattern remains in
place.
AVIATION
Issued at 601 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025
Strong cold air advection in the wake of a cold front this
morning will provide steep low-level lapse rates and gusty west
winds today. Expect blowing snow at the terminals and occasional
snow showers. IFR visibility is likely in the heavier snow
showers this morning and again this afternoon. Wind gusts will
decrease this evening.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
Issued at 422 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025
Strong and gusty west winds are forecast today. Gale Warnings go
into effect at 6 AM and Heavy Freezing Spray warnings follow at
8 AM. Gusts of 30 to 40 knots are forecast. Wind and waves will
diminish overnight and Friday morning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN…None.
WI…None.
MARINE…Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140>148-150.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM CST Friday for LSZ140>148-150.