Is 150 people a ‘flock’?

By John Phelan, American Experiment

I’ve written before about how Minnesota’s state government is trying to offset the residents driven out of the state by its ever-higher-tax policies with those attracted here by the state’s “progressive” social policies.

Will it work? I don’t know. While there is a decent body of empirical research showing that taxes are one factor driving people’s location decisions, there is much less—none, in fact—showing the effects on migration patterns of, say, the availability of sex change procedures for children. Minnesota is the experiment.

Early indications are not encouraging. The most recent data show that Minnesota continues to lose residents to other parts of the United States, on net. But the “Minnesotan experiment” is in its early days and the Census Bureau data only runs into 2023.

But the Star Tribune (who else?) sees reasons for optimism. Last week, the paper reported: “People are flocking to Minnesota as a trans refuge. Providers are struggling to meet the demand.”

The text of the article offered less cause for excitement, however:

“In a span of six months after the law passed, 150 people have said they’re planning to move to Minnesota alone or with their families from states as far away as Texas, Tennessee, and Florida, according to an online survey put together by LGBTQ groups in the state. Nearly 90% of respondents said they are moving in order to get that care in Minnesota…”

150 people nationwide is hardly a flock. It would offset just 11.5 days’ worth of the net outflow of residents for 2022-2023. Whatever the merits or otherwise of measures such as the Trans Refuge Bill, it is not a substitute for an economic development strategy. For that, the state government is going to have to think again.